The Australian dollar has entered a corrective phase after recently reaching local highs, with the pullback driven by weaker-than-expected macroeconomic releases. The earlier rally in AUD was fuelled by improved global risk appetite and solid demand for commodity-linked currencies. However, softer labour market figures have prompted traders to reassess expectations, leading to a wave of profit-taking.
Latest employment data from Australia indicated a slowdown in momentum, casting doubt on the strength of the recovery. While full-time employment posted gains, overall job creation fell short of forecasts, and the unemployment rate remained broadly unchanged. This combination has weighed on the currency and triggered a revision of its near-term outlook following the previous upswing.
As the week draws to a close, attention shifts to upcoming economic data, including indicators of activity, central bank speeches, and developments in commodity markets. These releases could reshape market sentiment and determine the next move for commodity currencies.
AUD/USD
AUD/USD has pulled back after reaching a yearly peak near 0.7180, with a “Bearish Harami” pattern forming on the chart. A negative close in the current session may increase the risk of a deeper decline towards 0.7100–0.7120.
Conversely, a break above the recent high would indicate that bullish momentum remains intact and that buyers are regaining control.
Key events for AUD/USD:
- today at 13:00 (GMT+3): International Monetary Fund meetings;
- today at 18:30 (GMT+3): speech by FOMC member Mary Daly;
- today at 22:30 (GMT+3): CFTC net speculative positions on AUD.
AUD/CAD
AUD/CAD is also edging lower, reflecting both weakness in the Australian dollar and relative stability in the Canadian currency. Commodity market trends remain influential, particularly movements in energy prices and expectations for global demand.
From a technical standpoint, the pair may continue to correct towards 0.9730–0.9760, supported by the formation of a “Dark Cloud Cover” pattern on the daily chart. A renewed test of recent highs will be key in assessing whether the broader uptrend can resume.
Key events for AUD/CAD:
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canadian housing starts;
- today at 15:30 (GMT+3): foreign investment in Canadian securities;
- today at 20:00 (GMT+3): Baker Hughes rig count.
The Australian dollar’s pullback reflects weaker labour market data following a period of steady appreciation. Continued pressure could deepen the correction, although a stabilisation in external conditions and supportive data may allow the broader upward trend to reassert itself.
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