Can Quantum Computers Break Bitcoin by 2032? An Ethereum Researcher Thinks It Is Possible

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Ethereum researcher Justin Drake has brought to attention two major quantum computing breakthroughs that could significantly accelerate the timeline for breaking modern cryptography.

At the center of it all is Shor’s algorithm, a quantum method capable of breaking the encryption behind Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Google and Oratomic Push the Limits

Drake described the release of two new research papers as a “monumental day” for quantum computing. Both studies improve Shor’s algorithm, a quantum method known for its ability to crack widely used encryption systems like RSA and elliptic curve cryptography, which secure networks such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

“The algorithm runs on ~1K logical qubits for the 256-bit elliptic curve secp256k1. Due to the low circuit depth, a fast superconducting computer would recover private keys in minutes.”

The first paper, from Google Quantum AI, shows that private keys tied to blockchain signatures could potentially be recovered in minutes using around 1,000 logical qubits. The second, from startup Oratomic, suggests even greater efficiency at the hardware level, reducing the number of required physical qubits by up to 40x.

Put simply, both papers attack different parts of the problem, and together, they make quantum threats feel far more real.

Q-Day Might Not Be So Far

Interestingly, Drake now believes the chances of “Q-Day”, when quantum computers can break current cryptography, arriving by 2032, have jumped significantly.

My confidence in q-day by 2032 has shot up significantly. IMO there’s at least a 10% chance that by 2032 a quantum computer recovers a secp256k1 ECDSA private key from an exposed public key.

He estimates at least a 10% probability that a quantum system could recover a private key within that timeframe.

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Speed is the real game-changer here. Superconducting quantum machines could crack keys in minutes, while slower systems might take days, but either way, the direction is clear.

The Real Risk Isn’t Mining

One key takeaway stands out. Quantum computing is not coming for Bitcoin mining anytime soon. Instead, the real threat lies in signature security, how wallets and transactions are protected.

Drake also hinted that future breakthroughs may not even be fully disclosed, as research could face censorship or secrecy.

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